The Numbers Game: Why Everything You Know About Soccer Is Wrong

This book is a must for any football fan - it changes the way you see the game for rest of your life. Having read countless of sports books, this one stands out as exceptionally insightful and brings something uniquely fresh to the table on topic that I thought there's nothing new to write about. The explanations on different aspects of the game this book gives are so obvious that you can only wonder how you got them so wrong all those years. And I promise: after reading it, you'll never again join the crowd to cheer for an corner.

I'm not an 'advanced statistics' person when it comes to soccer but I found the book very informative and insightful. It's very analytical - hence the dryness - but it gives you reasons to think a little harder about the things happening within a match and provides the relative values of different events, such as how successful corner kicks are versus free kicks and so on. Worth a read.

An eye opening view of the beautiful game.

Former goalkeeper Anderson and behavioral economist Sally attempt to do for soccer what Bill James did for baseball, i.e., use statistics to better understand the sport. The degree to which they succeed is debatable. On the one hand, they do a good job of analyzing the beautiful game in detail, arguing that some aspects of the game, like corner kicks and long balls, are less important than is generally thought while others, like defense and avoiding mistakes, are more important. (Not conceding a goal is twice as valuable as scoring a goal. A team's weak players are more important than its strong players.) On the other hand, the writing is neither as insightful nor as amusing as Bill James and perhaps too much time is spent discussing the importance of the statistical approach and the pioneers of that approach, especially when much of the discussion is negative, focusing on the shortcomings of former investigators. Much of their analysis of the game will likely be of interest to fans. Soccer, it turns out, is about half skill and half luck. (Put another way, the favored team wins just about half the time, compared with about three-fourths of the time in other major sports, like basketball or American football.) Soccer is also the lowest scoring of the major sports by a large margin, and soccer players make far fewer scoring attempts than do the players of other sports. The authors also provide some thoughts on how the game has changed over the years, for example, the fact that there are fewer goals, tighter scores, and fewer touches by forwards and strikers. In addition, some of their ideas (for example, their observations on motivating and teaching players) have relevance to management in general, and they do an excellent job of explaining the statistical principle of regression to the mean. The key question for the average fan is whether the book will change the way he or she views the game. It isn't clear that this is the case, although I find myself less excited at corner kicks, now that I know that only about 1 in 50 will result in a goal. On the other hand, does knowing that 80 per cent of events in a soccer game are passes help me? (On the other hand, knowing that good teams make more easy passes in better locations, thus limiting turnovers, might have helped me be a better coach.)

On the plus side: "The Numbers Game," to paraphrase Mark Twain, makes a lot of good hamburgers out of sacred cows. Anderson and Sally provide us with much food for thought regarding assumptions about soccer that we may never have questioned before. One great example is the strong evidence they provide that the game's outcome is about half determined by luck. They go a little too far when they say this means soccer is a "coin-toss game," but still, it is a revelation to realize that so much is out of the hands (or off the feet) of the players and coaches. It makes you wonder how much else in sports--and in life--is determined by chance. There's also a connection here to much later in the book, where the authors address the issue of "regression to the mean." Again Anderson and Sally provide us with examples that question how much control coaches and players really have over the game they are trying to influence. It was astounding to learn that in many cases, whether you replace a manager or not can be irrelevant--a team can "regress to the mean" and start improving their play just as much by keeping the manager as by firing him. (The same goes for whether the manager screams at them for losing or calmly explains how they can play better--though the latter, they suggest, is better for morale.) One final point I thought was very important was the evidence the authors provide that money alone does not rule soccer--they prove that there are "plenty of clubs [...] that outperform their salary tab in any given season." This is akin to the argument made about Billy Beane and the Oakland A's in "Moneyball." It's heartening to know that the underdog can still win, any given Sunday, with the appropriate strategy and a bit of luck. On the minus side: One thing I found a little disappointing about the book was that it didn't really have one or two main heroes to root for like Billy Beane or Bill James in "Moneyball"--in fact the book probably mentioned those two sabermetricians almost as much as any other single soccer statistician, manager or player. I think it would've made the book's narrative more compelling overall if the authors had spent more time getting to know say, Tony Pulis of Stoke, Arrigo Sacchi of AC Milan or less famously, Jimmy Davies of Waterloo Dock AFC. All three men were mentioned as fascinating examples of managerial insight, but were only given a few pages to shine. I suppose we'll have to settle for the pioneering role of Wing Commander Charles Reep for now...

Loved it. Made me think in new ways about the game. Well written, and even though I knew some of the outcomes of the research already it wSlas a good read because he used great anecdotes to make the point. Also, it wasn't a cliche ridden book that states the obvious all the time like most football books. Definitely recommended

This is truly the best book on soccer with high quality statistics and insightful interpretation of the data. With enough but not overwhelming statistics evidence, the author presents convincingly his view on how the game has evolved over the years. The book is not wriiten just for data-driven professionals but for everyday fans as well.

Broadly, this is a good book. As other reviewers noted, maybe not as solid as Soccernomics or as math heavy as Beautiful Game Theory: How Soccer Can Help Economics but still well worth the price and can be read in a day or two. The positives I will leave to the 4-5 star reviewers because in general I concur. Instead I'd like to add some negatives that other low-star reviewers have not yet addressed: 1. The authors insecurity towards professionals in the field riddles the book. My edition is 338 pages. Way too many of these pages are wasted on the authors attempting to advocate that their very approach -- that is the studying of soccer via improved statistics instead of relying merely on the 'gut feeling' of professionals. I understand the reason for this, after all, here are two 'nerds' trying to change the game, and unlike Billy Beane they are not former professional players or current managers. But the author's desperate need leaks of the pages and definitely interferes with the enjoyment of the book. 2. Some of the statistics. This is danger that all pop-science -- and this is what this book truly is -- face. Famous papers become obsolete or in some cases reversed. Specifically I am referring to the "Hot Hand Fallacy" by Tom Gilovich. The authors spend almost 3 pages lovingly describe he paper and also use it as a little kudgel against those unscientific old hands. Unfortunately, the paper has been recently challenged by Jeffrey Zwiebel and Brett Green who have in fact marshaled convincing evidence that Gilovich was mistaken. Now there is nothing wrong with that, papers are published after books are sent to the printers but it raises the question of what other research the authors cite in the book has also been challenged by new developments (if any?). 3. Some of the claims the authors make contradict their own claims. To me the most glaring is the argument that all soccer at the top end looks the same -- I dont wholly disagree with the claim, the best teams cant afford to leave stylistic concerns in the face of the pragmatism of winning. But the author's evidence sometimes is contradicted by their own evidence: the four top leagues are the same...but the Spanish league has more fouls and in the German league scoring goals has much less predictive power than in England or Italy..and the Spanish league has a preference for the 4-2-3-1 and the English for the 4-4-1 or the 4-5-1..This is all from their book and these statements all seem to me like differences in the game. Still, all in all as someone who has fallen into the trend of buying these pop-science books for soccer its pretty fun.

Tutti gli appassionati di statistica e non dovrebbero averlo in biblioteca!?!🔝

As the name says its all about numbers. Nice to read a different perspective about football and its stats. If you love the sport and want to know more about it then you should read this, for sure.

Book arrived in perfect condition. Unfortuneately, my boyfriend already got it as a gift, but we are sure to find someone to give it to in the future.

It makes you see soccer a different way than you did before. It has many statistics and facts that, together, make you see a big picture. I would recommend this book to someone who has a level of soccer knowledge above average because some topics and facts may be difficult to understand. It is about the size of an open hand, perfect to read on a train, car or plane.

I’m enjoying every page. I think the reflections can be used even in my job!