The Fifth Risk: Undoing Democracy

During the final year of Donald Trump's presidency I bought several books about his administration. Who isn't curious about how this self-proclaimed genius was running the United States? [If you're not, you should be.] Trump, after all, claimed to be a phenomenally successful business leader, and though some of his triumphs are undisputed. Okay... two are: his ability to attract viewers to "The Apprentice" and to sell the Trump brand. As a straightforward, old-fashioned businessman? Well, that's another issue entirely. Running any country, much less the USA, requires an amazing capacity for keeping not just a finger on the pulse of things, but many fingers on several pulses of a myriad of things. And what does that require? Genius project management. Doesn't sound very glamorous, but those of us who've been professional PMs (project managers) appreciate the nuances of a project well-managed. The ability to build something (for example) from start to finish for a client while remaining within budget and scope, and deliver it all on time with few if any errors or problems. Michael Lewis's interview with John MacWilliams, former Chief Risk Officer in the Department of Energy, is detailed early in the book. You know the DOE -- the part of the government that tries to keep us all safe from nuclear attack and protects our nuclear arsenal, among other, lesser-known objectives of the DOE's mission. In his interview with MacWilliams, Lewis asks for the top five biggest risks: what can go wrong? "The list... was endless." Ikes! Accidents with nuclear weapons, of course, is high on that list. So is North Korea. But when he got to the fifth risk on that list of five? Project management. Because if you don't have a clear method to follow when implementing or maintaining a complex system, you're doomed to fail. And nobody wants to fail when it comes to nuclear weapons. MacWilliams discusses in details the risks, using specific, fascinating anecdotes. He describes how he and the DOE in general carefully prepared for the Trump presidency by creating detailed reports for the transition. But nobody showed up. Without in any way spoiling this book for you, I can tell you that becomes the theme in Lewis's "The Fifth Risk": nobody ever shows up. Major departments in the US government were left without key, knowledgeable people when Trump took over the presidency. A massive failure in project management. Reading this book I not only gained incredible insight into the Department of Energy, but into the Department of Agriculture. Think this is a boring, bloated segment of our federal government? Then read this book. You'll learn -- as I did -- that the USDA has sprawling responsibilities and a $164 million budget (2016). Nope, not just to aid farmers. That's just a tiny sliver of what they do. And if you think the National Weather Service is just a glorified forecasting service, Lewis tracks its finer points through a detailed profiles of Kathy Sullivan and DJ Patil -- to give us a clear idea of the scope of the Department of Commerce. (Here's a hint: it's the data-rich part of our government.) I'm trying yet failing to adequately describe just how fascinating this book is. If you think you know the US government, if you think you know how our tax money is really spent across these agencies, you're wrong (unless of course you've worked inside any of these agencies). Lewis brings to bear the full skill-set of an accomplished interviewer coupled with the ability to write clearly, making for a narrative filled with compelling stories, interesting personalities, and enough information to make you feel as though you've been plunged into the deepest recesses of some of our most influential segments of the federal government. Information is power. Read this. Be informed.

This was an interesting book. I like Lewis’ writing style. He is able to explain complicated details without getting bogged down by them. The first part of the book is a on Trump’s transition, the second on government management, and the third on government data. The story on the transition makes Trump seem somewhat crazy. Trump doesn’t want to prepare for the transition, he doesn’t want to spend money on it, and then he fires Christie, who was leading the transition, right after he wins the election. The result is that the people who should be taking over departments don’t show up when they should. I don’t know what to conclude from the transition stories. Lewis says in several places that the people in the agencies always see newcomers as uniformed about government. It seems natural that there will be added hostility to Trump’s appointees, And given that Trump didn’t prepare well for the transition, it’s not surprising that the transition is slow, but Lewis doesn’t provide many examples of problems resulting from the slow transition. Lewis also doesn’t provide many examples on the fifth risk--bad management. Lewis only spends about 20% of the book on this topic and this part of the book seems the weakest. He does a good job explaining how badly polluted the Hanford nuclear site is. He quotes a century and 100 billion dollars as the likely clean up requirements. Lewis says Trump is not thinking long term about the dangers Hanford, which is probably correct, but given the scope of the problem it’s hard to see many politicians coming to grips with it. The last part of the book is on government data. It focuses on NOAA weather data. The story describes the huge amounts of data gathered by NOAA and the great progress being made in using it to predict the weather. This is a good example, but it’s also a special one. "The Signal and the Noise" by Nate Silver has a chapter on weather prediction that helps put it in perspective. E.g., we can now use weather data to predict the weather in 5 or 10 days, but we can’t use geological data to predict earthquakes or data on NFL games to predict with much certainty which team will win the SuperBowl. Lewis tells an important story about NOAA, but I’m not sure that it applies to many other parts of the government. Lewis does a good job of making the point that many people in government are not properly appreciated. He describes many good people who care about their jobs and know much more than short-term political appointees will ever know. At times the people Lewis quotes are dismissive of people outside of government, which undermines Lewis’ argument by making government workers look out-of-touch. He quotes one person saying, “I can tell you that the market does not go into a lab and work on something that might or might not work.” Does this guy not realize that companies are always investing in new ideas that may or may not pay off? Lewis quotes someone else saying, “Without USDA money, it’s possible we’d look like sub-Saharan Africa, or rural China.” I trust that this guy was dedicated to his job, but he seems to have lost some perspective on the people he is trying to help.

Big fan of ML’s writing but in this book, he has out done himself. Not his longest, not his most entertaining but surely his most important. A critical and revealing insight of the concerned nerds and experts inside bureaucracy and a flashing red warning sign of incompetent politicians who use our worst traits to seek power. It’s US based of course but easily transposes to any state or country.

Worth the money alone for the extracts about a wide range of essential tasks the government does, often hidden behind misleading names in unexpected ministeries. Or the discrepancy between world class research vs. outdated procedures and dated equipment. Lots of insight far beyond the current political situation. Like his other books, this is a journalist writing. The book is rich in interviews of 1st hand sources; "the fifth risk" is actually a quote. The scary part is to imagine what damage the current ignorance, neglect and looting of the system may cause.

忖度が流行語となり、行政の立場が批判の的となっている日本。同様にアメリカのトランプ政権下、行政はおざなりにされている。著者は、地道で影の役者として活躍した有能な行政官を称える、と同時にトランプ政権下の行政を憂慮し、警告を発信している。

A very interesting appraisal of the Trump 1 presidency told to the author by insiders. The imposition of prejudice over facts has of course been turbocharged in Trump 2. The author has a very readable style and I will certainly be thinking about buying other books by him.

This was a short, very quick read which is both uplifting and terrifying. This is a book about the regular work that the Federal government does which the wider public is not aware of. Crucial things like nuclear safety, scientific research and saving people’s lives every day without fanfare or thanks. I’d never thought that an ode to project management and the regular working of government could be poetic but this book provided me wrong. As the NY Times said: “Michael Lewis [made] a Story About Government Infrastructure Exciting Having lived through some PM snafus and as someone who works closely with public sector, I was predisposed to like this book. The book is short and very readable, like most of Mr. Lewis’ work. He manages to find the human heart behind some mundane (and some terrifying) situations. He has a simple style which keeps you engaged; this is highly recommended for everyone to read. It is also a good reminder that despite all the arguments about the proper role of the government, there are good hardworking people out there who just want to do the right thing. For that reminder alone I am giving this a 5 stars.